The Chances of a Grizzly or Cougar Attack is One in 2.1 Million

The Truth Behind the 2025 Headlines

Despite a surge in sensational headlines throughout 2025, the statistical reality of large predator conflict in British Columbia and Alberta remains one of extreme rarity. This article synthesizes two decades of data to show that while human-wildlife encounters are increasing due to environmental pressures, the actual risk to human life remains lower than almost any other common outdoor hazard.

While high-profile incidents are tragic, they remain statistical anomalies. 

In November 2025, the community of Bella Coola, BC, was rocked by a rare grizzly bear attack on a group of school children. Headlines across the country immediately pivoted to a familiar narrative: are predators becoming more aggressive?

As wildlife lovers, we must look at the data to answer that question. While high-profile incidents are tragic, they remain statistical anomalies. The reality of the last 20 years suggests that while human-wildlife encounters are rising, the risk of an attack remains lower than the risk of being struck by lightning or dying in a car accident.

Photo courtesy of Brian Aiken • https://www.instagram.com/brian.aikens

The Hard Numbers (2005 to 2025)

The following statistics reflect verified reports from the British Columbia Conservation Officer Service (COS) and Alberta Forestry and Parks.

Grizzly Bear Attacks

• British Columbia: Despite a massive population of roughly 15,000 grizzlies, BC has 🐻recorded only one fatal attacs in the last 15 years (one in 2017). The province averages between 3 and 7 non-fatal attacks per year.

• Alberta: Alberta has experienced a higher concentration of fatalities recently. Since 2020, there have been five grizzly-related deaths in the province. Biologists attribute this to a growing bear population (now nearly 1,000) expanding into "traditional" human recreation areas and foothills.

Cougar Attacks

• British Columbia: The data here is the most striking. There have been zero fatal cougar attacks in BC for over 20 years. The last recorded fatality was in the late 1990s.

• Alberta: There has only been one recorded cougar fatality in Alberta's history (Banff, 2001). While sightings and "calls to service" exceed 2,500 annually in BC, physical contact is almost non-existent.

Photo courtesy of Char Gagnon • https://www.instagram.com/char_gagnon_photography/

Why Conflict Arises: The Human Footprint

If attacks are rare, why does it feel like conflict is increasing? The data points to three human-caused drivers:

The "Food-to-Conflict" Pipeline Research shows that when natural food sources fail, bears are forced to find calories near humans. A 2016 study found that for every 50% decrease in salmon biomass, grizzly management kills (bears destroyed by officers) increased by 20% [1]. Similarly, the 2023 berry crop failure in the Rockies led to a 100% increase in "food-stressed" bears entering towns like Canmore and Banff [3].

Habitat Fragmentation and Road Density Grizzlies and cougars are being "squeezed" into smaller areas. In Alberta, areas with a road density higher than 0.6 km per square kilometre show a sharp decline in bear survival because roads bring humans and predators into constant contact [6].

The Trap of Unnatural Attractants According to the COS, 1.7% of all conflict calls in 2024 resulted in a bear being killed. The primary reason for those calls? Unsecured garbage, birdseed, and fruit trees. We are essentially training wildlife to view our backyards as grocery stores.

The Role of Traditional Stewardship Often overlooked in the data is the vital role of Indigenous-led conservation. Protecting these corridors is not just a biological necessity, but an act of supporting the traditional land stewardship of nations who have coexisted with these predators for millennia.

Comparative Risk: Keeping it in Perspective

To understand the risk of a predator attack, we must compare it to other daily hazards in Western Canada.

The Policy Fallout (2024 to 2025)

This data is currently at the centre of a heated political debate. In Alberta, Forestry and Parks Minister Todd Loewen has cited the recent spike in fatalities (5 in 5 years) to justify a "targeted hunt" of problem grizzlies as of 2024. As of December 2025, the province is considering lifting the 20-year ban on grizzly hunting entirely, a move conservationists argue ignores the root causes: habitat loss and a lack of funding for the BearSmart program [4, 5].

The chances of a grizzly or cougar attack is roughly one in 2.1 million for the average back country visitor.

The chances of a grizzly or cougar attack is roughly one in 2.1 million for the average back country visitor. The real "crisis of conflict" is not a surge in animal aggression, but a failure to manage the landscapes and attractants that draw them to us. If we want to keep these iconic species on the landscape, we must fund coexistence, protect habitat corridors, and secure our communities.

Photo courtesy of Mitch Popilchak • https://www.mitchpopilchak.ca/

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References

1. Artelle, K. A., et al. (2016). "Ecology of conflict: Marine food supply affects human-wildlife interactions on land." Scientific Reports.

2. BC Conservation Officer Service (2025). "Predator Statistics: Grizzly Bear and Cougar Calls (2011 to 2025)." Government of British Columbia.

3. Parks Canada (2024). "Bears in the Mountain National Parks: Food and Nutrition Reports."

4. CTV News (Dec 2025). "Alberta considers lifting 20-year hunting ban on grizzlies: Forestry and Parks Minister Todd Loewen."

5. Alberta Wilderness Association (2025). "Review of Wildlife Act Changes and the Problem Bear Hunt."

6. Lamb, C. T., et al. (2018). "The road to recovery: Effects of roads and motorized human access on grizzly bear populations." Journal of Applied Ecology.